Monday, October 15, 2007

Blast in Ludhiana cinema hall: 6 dead, 30 hurt

Terror struck Ludhiana on Sunday when six people were killed and 30 injured in a blast in one of the three cinema halls in a multiplex located in a busy shopping area of this industrial town in Punjab.

The multiplex has a capacity for 1,050 persons and being a festive Sunday evening, it was full. Police said the blast may have been caused by a low intensity explosive.

The Intelligence Bureau has not ruled out a terrorist link to the blast.

Former IB director Ajit Doval even hinted at a possible ISI linkage. Some sleeper cells of terrorists have been looking for such an opportunity. The IB has to study this development, as such an attack cannot be carried out without months of planning, Doval told rediff.com.

However, Ludhiana Range DID Ishwar Singh confirmed that the blast had been carried out by a terrorist group. No outfit has yet claimed responsibility.

Confirming the death toll, Punjab's Director General of Police N P S Aulakh said the involvement of the Babbar Khalsa could not be ruled out. The blast occurred around 8.40 pm. The evening show commenced at 7 pm.

Four died on the spot while two died in hospital, police said. Half of the injured were in a critical condition and some of them underwent surgeries at the nearby Christian Medical College hospital.

Ishwar Singh said the bomb was planted between the second and third seat in the third row of second block on the right side of the lower stall in the blast affected hall. Maximum damage was done to the 'lower class' area of the hall, which is usually frequented by migrant labourers.

The intensity of the blast was such that it created a big crater in the hall and window panes were smashed. A Bhojpuri film Janam Janam Ka Saath was being screened in the hall.

Dr Rajesh Paul, a CMC doctor, said the victims brought to the hospital had injuries in upper and lower limbs. "They are basically blast injuries," he said, adding that "the number of casualties may go up."

Eyewitnesses said some of the deceased had their limbs dismembered.

Aulakh said a forensic team had already reached the spot from Chandigarh and was lifting samples, adding the nature of the explosives would be known later on. He said that Punjab had been already put on maximum alert in view of the current festive season.

Police said that investigations were on to know the nature of explosives used in the attack.

Ishwar Singh said that those who died in the incident were all males and added that only one blast had occurred and did not agree with some eyewitness accounts that two blasts had rocked the cinema hall.

Strongly condemning the incident, Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal said that fundamental and anti-national forces inimical to peace and communal harmony will not be allowed to succeed in their nefarious designs.

Badal said that law and order in the state will be maintained at all costs and appealed to people to remain calm. He also directed the civil and police officials in the state to remain vigilant and added that government will provide free medical treatment to the injured and will give adequate compensation to the next of those who had died in the incident.

The blast occurred when the film being screened had resumed after an interval, eyewitness accounts said, adding a song was being screened when the hall was rocked by the blast.

Immediately after the blast, panic-stricken viewers rushed out of the theatre, officials said.

Chandigarh was put on high alert following the blast.

A police spokesman said security around the inter-state bus terminus, railway station and other important buildings and installations had been beefed up.

Meanwhile, the Centre is closely monitoring the security situation in Punjab.

Union Home secretary Madhukar Gupta spoke to Punjab's chief secretary and Director General of Police to have first hand information about the incident, official sources said.

The Centre has assured all assistance to the state government and was also rushing bomb experts from elite National Security Guards. The Union Home secretary, after talking to Punjab chief secretary, apprised the home minister Shivraj Patil about the situation.

Blast does not point to revival of terrorism in Punjab: CM

A day after a blast killed six people in a multiplex in Ludhiana, Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal has ruled out revival of terrorism in the state.

After visiting the injured at various hospitals in Ludhiana on Monday, he strongly condemned the act of anti-national forces to disturb the peace and harmony in the state.

Asked whether the blast was revival of terrorism in the state, he replied in the negative saying, 'people would not allow the hard-earned peace to go.'

"People of Punjab have no sympathy with terrorists as they have gone through worst days... there is no chances of revival of terrorism," he said.

Badal also announced an ex-gratia grant of Rs two lakh each for the next of kin of those killed in the blast.

Talking to media persons after the visiting the blast site, he said Punjab Police was probing the incident and that it would be able to give details only after investigations.

Badal said it was still premature to say anything about the nature of explosives or the group behind the blast.

Meanwhile, top police officers reviewed the situation with their counterparts in various districts and directed them to take precautionary measures to prevent re-occurrence of such events.

"Police have been put on high alert especially in thickly populated areas, including railway stations, bus stands and marriage palaces," DIG Ishwar Chander said.

A senior Punjab Police official said that investigations are being carried out on various angles.

"Forensic experts were examining the chemicals used in the blast," he said, adding at present the nature of chemicals used cannot be disclosed.

The district administrations had been directed not to allow anyone to hold public meetings or gatherings without prior permission, officials said in Ludhiana.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Blast at Ajmer dargah: 3 dead, 28 hurt

Terror struck the highly reverred Sufi shrine of Khwaja Moinuddin Chisthi in Ajmer when a bomb went off inside the complex on Thursday evening killing three persons and injuring 28 others as thousands of Muslims were breaking their day-long Ramzan fast.

A near-stampede broke out soon after the bomb kept in a school bag exploded at 1816 hours as people, who were having food after the fast, running ran helter-skelter, many of them profusely bleeding, and overturned plates and eatables lay scattered.

One of the persons killed in the low-intensity blast, which took place a few meters away from the main tomb, was identified as 45-year-old Mohammed Shoaib from Mumbai who had come to offer prayers at the dargah of the 13th century Sufi saint.

Of the injured, 14 are undergoing treatment at the local Jawaharlal Nehru Hospital and an equal number of others were dischared from the hospital after first aid.

Out of the 14 injured who are still admitted, the condition of one was critical, Rajasthan Additional Director General of Police (Law and Order) Kanhiya Lal said.

It appeared to be a pre-planned terror attack and the bomb was kept in a school bag near a tree at 'Aahetai-e-Noor' (holy place), about 10-15 feet away from main tomb of the Sufi saint, he said.

Union Home Ministry sources in Delhi said it was a terror strike in which militants had used a low-intensity improvised explosive device.

They said the terror outfits, including Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Tayiba, were against Sufi Islam and they could be prime suspects behind the blast at the shrine, respected by both Hindus and Muslims, which came barely 10 days ahead of the meeting of Indo-Pakistan anti-terror mechanism on October 22.

Central Reserve Police Force battalions based in Ajmer had been kept in readiness for deployment at the shrine.

Rajasthan Principal Secretary (Home) V S Singh said it was a low-intensity blast and a team of forensic experts have reached the blast site.

Entry into the dargah, visited by both Hindus and Muslims, has been restricted and people are being screened, he said.

Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, who is in Delhi, announced a compensation of Rs 5 lakh for the next of kin of those killed in the terror attack at the shrine of Sufi saint Khwaja Moinuddin Chisti. The seriously injured will get a relief of Rs 1 lakh each.

A high alert was sounded across Rajasthan and security at all religious places enhanced in the wake of terror attack at the dargah, Kanhaiya Lal said.

Police was asked to deploy armed men at railway stations, airports, bus stops and the state secretariat, he said.

Union Home Secretary Madhukar Gupta told reporters in Delhi that all states to intensify vigil in view of the forthcoming festive season in the wake of the blast.

Security had already been stepped up at key shrines across the country following the Mecca Masjid blast in Hyderabad in May this year.

With major Hindu and Muslim festivals round the corner starting with Eid-ul-Fitr, Gupta asked the states to maintain communal peace and harmony.

Rajasthan Home Minister Gulab Chand Katara said it has to be found out whether the incident was a result of a security lapse.

He admitted that a major chunk of the state's police force was monitoring the Gujjar agitation.

"Due to the Gujjar agitation, the security forces were busy in monitoring the situation, so they were scattered all over the state," Katara said adding, the police force was not present in large numbers at Ajmer and more specifically at the dargah.

No policeman was injured in the blast, Divisional Commissioner, Ajmer, Deepak Utpreti said.

Two or three private security guards were injured when hundreds of people rushed out of the dargah, he said.

Companies of Rajasthan Armed Constabulary were deployed in the dargah area and investigation was on by experts of Forensic Science Laboratory and intelligence agencies, including Central organisations, he added.

Utpreti who is also supervising the hospitalisation said one of the injured was very critical and senior doctors are attending on him.

Ajmer blast: Bangladeshi pilgrims questioned

The Rajasthan police is interrogating some suspects, including pilgrims of Bangladeshi origin, in connection with the blast at the revered Sufi shrine of Khwaja Moinuddin Chisti at Ajmer where Friday prayers will go ahead as scheduled.

Some suspects are being interrogated since Thursday night but no arrests have been made in connection with the blast which claimed two lives and left 17 injured, a senior official said.

Coverage: Terror rocks Ajmer

"Police and intelligence agencies are interrogating suspected people, even pilgrims of Bangladesh origin besides investigation by forensic and state CID-Crime branch experts", Additional Director-General of Police (Law & Order) Kanihya Lal said.

Though the blast site was cordoned off, the Jumma Namaz would be conducted inside the Dargah of Khawaja Moinudeen Chisti, he said, adding preparations were afoot with deployment of armed forces.

The ADG said BSF and RAC (Rajasthan Armed Constabulary) personnel were deployed last night as a precautionary measure.

A high alert was sounded across Rajasthan and security at all religious places enhanced in the wake of terror attack.

An official investigating the case said "seventeen close circuit TVs [Get Quote] were installed but they were not working due to differences among khadims and the Dargah diwan".

Terror struck the shrine last evening when a bomb went off inside the complex killing two persons and injuring 17 others as thousands of Muslims were breaking their day-long Ramzan fast.

A near-stampede broke out soon after the bomb kept in a school bag exploded as people, who were having food after the fast, ran helter-skelter.

The deceased were identified as Saleem of Hyderabad, and Mohammed Shoyab of Mumbai, the ADG said, adding the 17 injured included some pilgrims from Orissa, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Jammu and Kashmir [Images].

Five other persons were injured in melee after the blast outside the Dargah area, he said.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Malaysia: Indian workers beaten up for speaking up

More than 200 Indian nationals working in a Malaysian factory have alleged that they were being abused by their employment agent and are desperate to return home after three of their colleagues were brutally beaten up.

The 264 Indian workers, employed at a factory in Senai in Johor state, claimed their agent started abusing them when they arrived in Malaysia two years ago.

The workers claimed that three of their colleagues were abducted and beaten up for putting up a notice stating that workers no longer wanted 2.50 (25 rupees), the cost of hostel canteen food, to be deducted from their daily wages.

The Indian workers, part of the 1,500-strong foreign workforce at the plastic-moulding factory, staged a picket to demand the release of the three, local media reports said.

The trio, with bruises all over their bodies, has since returned to the hostel, the report said.

One of the workers, Thangaraju, 39, said he could have ended up dead if not for the strike staged by his co-workers.

Thangaraju claimed that he and the other two workers were beaten for hours and the men tried to force him to drink detergent when he asked for water, the report said.

He said the beatings started two months after they arrived at the hostel in November 2005.

"We found worms in the rice served at the canteen. When we complained, 20 of my colleagues were abducted and given a severe beating. Only 10 returned and to date, we don't know what happened to the rest."

Another worker identified as Vadivelu said the workers decided to quit and return home on the advice of their parents.

A factory official said the management wanted to send the injured trio to the clinic but were stopped by their colleagues.

"There is a small group of workers instigating the others. They are forcing the workers to strike and this has disrupted operations."

The official said the factory took over the management of the hostel three days ago after the workers decided they did not want to deal with their agent any more.

War on terror fuelling Al Qaeda: report

A British think-tank on Monday said the United States-led war on terror is failing and is in fact fuelling an increase in support for extremist Islamist movements.

The report, put together by the Oxford Research Group, said a fundamental rethink is required to tackle the global terror network.

''If the Al Qaeda [Images] movement is to be countered, then the roots of its support must be understood and systematically undercut,'' Paul Rogers, the report's author and professor of global peace studies at Bradford University in northern England [Images], said.

Rogers said the invasion of Iraq was a disastrous mistake that has helped establish a most valued jihadi combat training zone.

Rogers also warned against going to was with Iran.

"It will make matters far worse, playing directly into the hands of extreme elements and adding greatly to the violence across the region. Whatever the problems with Iran, war should be avoided at all costs," he said.

It added: ''Combined with conventional policing and security measures, Al Qaeda can be contained and minimised but this will require a change in policy at every level.''

Regarding Afghanistan, Rogers said there is a need for scaling down of military activities, an injection of more civil aid and negotiations with militia groups aimed at bringing them into the political process.

Such measures will still take at least 10 years to make up for the mistakes made since 9/11, he said.

''Failure to make the necessary changes could result in the war on terror lasting decades,'' the report said.

Why the Bajaj brothers are at war

Even as the Bajaj imbroglio comes up for hearing before the Company Law Board (CLB) on October 23, there is every indication that this might turn out to be the longest-running family feud of all times.

Developments in the last few days clearly show that Rahul and Shishir, the warring brothers, have drifted further apart rather than moving towards a solution.

First, the two announced that the four-year-old family settlement had fallen through. Next, Shishir, in a move aimed at consolidating his holding in Bajaj Hindusthan, the country's largest sugar producer that he controls, bought 4.67 per cent in the company from the market.

Bajaj Auto [Get Quote], which is controlled by older brother Rahul, had bought 3 per cent in the company a few months ago.

Bajaj insiders admit that finding a solution to the imbroglio is not easy because of the way the family holding is structured. Jamnalal Bajaj, the founder of the group and a close associate of Mahatma Gandhi, had two sons: Kamal Nayan and Ramkrishna.

The interests in the family holding companies were equally divided between the two.

Kamal Nayan's stake was equally divided between his two sons, Rahul and Shishir, while Ramkrishna's was trifurcated between his three sons: Shekhar, Madhur and Niraj.

Thus, Rahul and Shishir have 25 per cent each of the family stake in the group's main investment vehicle, Bajaj Sevashram, while their three cousins own 16.67 per cent each.

Bajaj Sevashram holds the Bajaj family's interests in all group companies directly and through subsidiaries. It has a wholly-owned subsidiary, Jamnalal Sons, and a 78 per cent subsidiary, Bachhraj & Co.

The problem is that the equations will alter in the next generation. Rahul and Shishir have two sons each: Rajiv, Sanjiv and Kushagra, Apoorv, respectively. Each of them will get 12.5 per cent in Bajaj Sevashram.

On the other hand, Anant (Shekhar's only son) and Nirav (Niraj's only son) will inherit 16.67 per cent each. In short, two GenNext Bajaj cousins will hold a bigger share in the key Bajaj group investment vehicle.

This may pose problems in the controlling group companies, said a corporate lawyer. There is no immediate threat as of now as Rahul, Sekhar, Madhur and Niraj form one camp while Shishir is in the other.

Bajaj Auto is run by Rahul and his sons, Rajiv and Sanjiv. Sekhar looks after Bajaj Electricals [Get Quote], while Niraj runs Mukund with their partners, the Shah family. Madhur plays various roles in Bajaj Auto.

Things may become more complicated with the way the minority shareholders of Bachhraj & Co, one of the family's holding companies, choose to go. In addition to the Bajaj family's holding, the Pittie family and B K Birla hold 22 per cent stake in Bachhraj. B K Birla's grand-daughter Vasavadatta is married to Kushagra, Shishir Bajaj's son.

The dispute came to the limelight when Shishir sought CLB intervention in 2003 for splitting the family assets.

On the CLB's advice, the family reached to a settlement formula and signed a memorandum of understanding to this effect.

Under the formula, the Shishir group would get Bajaj Hindusthan and Bajaj Consumer Care and the Rahul camp would get the rest. In addition, Shishir would get monetary compensation for foregoing his interest in the other group companies.

However, the formula has not been implemented so far, with both parties putting the responsibility for implementing it on each other. The dispute is mainly stuck over the amount of cash compensation that Shishir is to be paid.

The fact that the matter was referred to the CLB, industry observers said, is an indication that the Bajaj family dispute is nowhere close to a resolution.

"Family members normally reach a settlement on their own and then put a legal stamp on it. To ask the CLB to split assets indicates that nothing is going to happen in a hurry in the Bajaj family dispute," said a legal practitioner.

In the past, families like the Birlas, the Modis, the Thapars and the Ambanis split their businesses internally and in a much shorter time than the Bajajs.

NEO ECONOMICS

'SAVING IS SIN, SPENDING IS VIRTUE'
-- Written by an Indian Economist

Japanese save a lot. They do not spend much. Also
Japan exports far more than it imports. Has an annual
trade surplus of over $100 billions. Yet Japanese
economy is considered weak, even collapsing.

Americans spend, save little. Also US import more than
it exports. Has an annual trade deficit of over $400
billion. Yet, the American economy is considered
strong and trusted to get stronger.

But where from do Americans get money to spend?
They borrow from Japan , China and even India .
Virtually others save for the US to spend. Global
savings are mostly invested in US, in dollars. India
itself keeps its foreign currency assets of over $50
billions in US securities. China has sunk over $160
billion in US securities. Japan 's stakes in US
securities is in trillions.

Result:
The US has taken over $5 trillion from the world. So,
as the world saves for the US , Americans spend
freely. Today, to keep the US consumption going, that
is for the US economy to work, other countries
have to remit $180 billion every quarter, which is $2
billion a day, to the US ! Otherwise the US economy
would go for a six. So will the global economy. The
result will be no different if US consumers begin
consuming less.

A Chinese economist asked a neat question. Who has
invested more, US in China , or China in US? The US
has invested in China less than half of what China has
invested in US. The same is the case with India . We
have invested in US over $50 billion. But the US has
invested less than $20 billion in India .

Why the world is after US?
The secret lies in the American spending, that they
hardly save. In fact they use their credit cards to
spend their future income. That the US spends is what
makes it attractive to export to the US. So US
imports more than what it exports year after year.

The result:
The world is dependent on US consumption for its
growth. By its deepening culture of consumption, the
US has habituated the world to feed on US consumption.
But as the US needs money to finance its consumption,
the world provides the money. It's like a shopkeeper
providing the money to a customer so that the customer
keeps buying from the shop. If the customer will not
buy, the shop won't have business, unless the
shopkeeper funds him. The US is like the lucky
customer. And the world is like the helpless
shopkeeper financier.

Who is America 's biggest shopkeeper financier? Japan
of course. Yet it's Japan which is regarded as weak.
Modern economists complain that Japanese do not spend,
so they do not grow. To force the Japanese to spend,
the Japanese government exerted it self, reduced the
savings rates, even charged the savers. Even then the
Japanese did not spend (habits don't change, even with
taxes, do they?). Their traditional postal savings
alone is over $1.2 trillions, about three times the
Indian GDP. Thus, savings, far from being the strength
of Japan , has become its pain.

Hence, what is the lesson?
That is, a nation cannot grow unless the people spend,
not save. Not just spend, but borrow and spend. Dr.
Jagdish Bhagwati, the famous Indian-born economist in
the US , told Manmohan Singh that Indians wastefully
save. Ask them to spend, on imported cars and,
seriously, even on cosmetics! This will put India on a
growth curve. 'Saving is sin, and spending is virtue.'
Before you follow this neo economics, get some fools
to save so that you can borrow from them and spend.

This is what US has successfully done in last few
decades.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

The Twenty20 team is the future of Indian cricket

Lalchand Rajput may have not achieved much in international cricket as a player, but as coach he is definitely making huge waves.

After successfully coaching the India Under-19 and India 'A' teams for a few years, he achieved a major breakthrough when he guided the Indian team to the Twenty20 World Cup title in his role as team manager.

He played a major part in keeping the young team focused during the tournament, and it was no surprise that he was asked to continue for the ongoing Australia one-day series.

Special Correspondent Harish Kotian caught up with the 45-year-old former Mumbai player in Bangalore on the eve of the first One-Day International against Australia.

It was your first assignment in charge of the senior India team. How delighted were you when the team won the Twenty20 World Cup?

It was really a very good team effort. I was very excited to take over the senior team. Every coach always looks at that goal -- that one day that he wants to take over the senior team. So that was a very good opportunity for me and it could not have been better than at the Twenty20 World Cup. At the end, it was an amazing victory. The team performed extremely well as a unit and that is why we were very successful.

What do you think was the one single element that led the team to victory at the Twenty20 World Cup?

I think team spirit! The team was hungry for success; I think that was very important.

The team that went for the World Cup didn't have much experience of Twenty20 cricket, having played just one international match. So, in that sense, was the task difficult to being with?

I think, since they all are cricketers of repute, because they have been playing for their county and they came straight from England [Images], they were all match fit. The only thing we said that was that we don't want you guys to take any pressure. The more you think about the game, and take pressure, your performance suffers. You don't have to take pressure, just go out there give your 100 per cent. Your body language should be good, you should be positive in your approach and so should the intensity level with which you should play. I think all these three things, if you do well, then success is definitely guaranteed.

India's first match against Scotland was washed out and then came the big match against arch-rivals Pakistan, which India won via the bowl-out. How much pressure was there on you when the bowl-out happened?

As I said, when you are with the Indian team there is always pressure and have to handle that pressure.

I think we did extremely well in the bowl-out, because we picked the slower bowlers rather than the fast bowlers. We felt that the slower bowlers had more chances of hitting the stumps.

Was it planned beforehand that you would play the slower bowlers in the bowl-out?

Yes, it was. Before that game against Pakistan we had a bowl-out session so we knew exactly who were the good hitters of the stumps. I think that worked for us.

There were a lot of youngsters in the Twenty20 World Cup-winning squad and they performed exceptionally well. Were you delighted with their showing?

Absolutely! When I picked Rohit Sharma, I had a chat with him and I told him 'this is an opportunity for you.

'Rajput and Dhoni with the World CupYou got to think positive because you have never played in England. So go out there and give your best. The reason because you are in the team is that you are talented and among the best 15 players in the country. Now is the time to prove your talent in the centre. So go out there, give your 100 percent and enjoy your cricket'.

Irfan Pathan [Images] and Harbhajan Singh [Images], who were making a comeback into the Indian team put in a top-class performance. What is your take on their showing?

I think the main reason was that they were hungry and they wanted to do well and get back into the team. If a person has got that ambition I think he does very well in the middle.

I think they both were very hungry to go out there and perform. Since Harbhajan had done very well in English county cricket, he carried that momentum into the Twenty20 World Cup too and bowled extremely well throughout the tournament; same for Irfan Pathan.

I think he has got his swing back and he fielded brilliantly too. And, in between, whenever the opportunity came he contributed with the bat too. He looks charged up again and rightly deserves to be back in the team.

What good will the Twenty20 World Cup victory do for Indian cricket?

I think this win will do good things, because being World champions is big for Indian cricket and the fans. I think the best gift we can give to our cricket-loving fans is the Twenty20 World Cup. People have now forgotten about the World Cup [debacle] in the West Indies [Images]. Everybody is now very keen and positive that this young team can do it. This young Twenty 20 team is the future of Indian cricket because the bench strength is very strong. If your bench strength is strong, then Indian cricket will be strong.

Was Yuvraj Singh's [Images] six sixes in an over in many ways the kick-start for India in the tournament? Before that match you had lost to New Zealand [Images] and had to win every match after that to stay in the tournament.

Yes. It was a very crucial game because if we wanted to qualify for the semi-finals we had to win that game. So everybody was really charged up as we had to do it. The way we started off against New Zealand -- we were 73 for no loss -- but even after that we lost. So everybody was thinking that now we have to put in more effort.

That was a fantastic effort by Yuvraj and that gave the team such a high. And everyone was saying that 'abhi karna hai, abhi peeche nahi hanta hai' [we have to do it now; we won't take a back step from here]. And I think we just moved forward from there after that.

In the final, against Pakistan, India showed a lot of character and determination to bounce back after being bowled out for 158. What discussions took place in the innings break during that match?

If you see, in the tournament we defended really low totals in the previous games as well [against Pakistan and South Africa]. And we also knew that no team had scored more than us chasing, as we won all our matches batting first. That was on the back of our mind.

The key, however, was the team's belief. Anything we will do it, whether it is 150 or 140 or 160 or 180, we will defend it. The players took the responsibility. Batsmen took the responsibility, bowlers took the responsibility when needed and the fielders backed them superbly. I think it was a very good team effort altogether.

Now comes another big test for you in the form of World champions Australia. How do you look at this challenge?

It was a challenge for me in the Twenty20 World Cup. It was such a big event, never been with the senior team before and suddenly a World Cup, but it went very well for me.

Definitely, this series is a bigger challenge for me and I want to do the same thing.

Having achieved so much success with a young side at the Twenty20 World Cup, how do you look at the return of senior players for this series?

Definitely, it will boost the team, because they are players of repute. Their presence will also help the younger players in the team, because whenever they need any help they can approach them for their advice. Sachin [Tendulkar], Sourav [Ganguly] and Rahul [Dravid] are tremendous cricketers and their inclusion will surely help.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Billion dollar investing tips from Warren Buffett

Widely considered the most successful investor of all time, Warren Buffett is a luminous example of the school of value investing. Starting with an initial fund of $105,000 in 1956, Buffet grew it to $45 billion over the next 50 years, making him the second richest man in the world. Though he is widely recognized as being an investor, the bulk of Buffet's wealth was built through intelligent use of leverage offered by his insurance companies. Since most individual investors do not have access to the type of capital that Buffet does, it is not easy to replicate his astounding wealth-building feat. However, by understanding and applying the basic guidelines of Buffett's investment approach to their own investing decisions, most long term investors can comfortably beat the returns of all but the best mutual fund managers.

So, how did Buffet accumulate the huge fortune that he eventually gave away to the charitable foundation run by his best friend, Bill Gates? One of the greatest attractions of Buffett for investors is that his investment methodology is easy to understand. However, it is far more difficult to apply because it calls for large amounts of patience and calm when your stocks move against you. It is also difficult to apply because it requires an orientation towards research and the ability to understand the complexities of accounting and finance. But for those willing to invest time and effort into mastering this approach, superlative investment performance over the long term is guaranteed.

Invest in Businesses, Not in Stocks

"Whenever we buy common stocks for Berkshire's insurance companies (leaving aside arbitrage purchases), we approach the transaction as if we were buying into a private business. We look at the economic prospects of the business, the people in charge of running it, and the price we must pay." -- Warren Buffett

This is the cornerstone of Buffett's investment style. Whenever he evaluates an investment opportunity he analyses it as a business and not as a stock. This makes him look closely at the company's fundamentals, earnings prospects, financial health and management. Conversely, this style of evaluating a business prevents him from buying a stock just because it is going up even though it has dubious prospects. A lot of investors tend to buy stocks based on tips from friends, acquaintances or brokers. By adopting Buffett's approach, you can save yourself a lot of grief later on.

Only Buy Businesses that You Understand

"Did we foresee thirty years ago what would transpire in the television manufacturing or computer industries? Of course not. Why, then, should Charlie and I now think we can predict the future of other rapidly evolving business? We'll stick instead with the easy cases. Why search for a needle buried in a haystack when one is sitting in plain sight?" -- Warren Buffett

Buffett has a track record of generating 21 per cent annually compounded returns over a 50-year time frame, a feat matched by very few investment managers. Though technology companies delivered some of the best returns during this period, Buffet has never owned one for the simple reason that he could not understand the long term prospects of these companies and evaluate them thoroughly. So the next time you get a tip to buy a "hot" company that you do not understand, you should ask yourself: "If the greatest investor in the world will not invest in something he doesn't understand, should I?"

Buy Companies with Defensible 'Franchise'

"As Peter Lynch says, stocks of companies selling commodity-like products should come with a warning label: 'Competition may prove hazardous to human wealth'." -- Warren Buffett

Most of Buffett's portfolio companies, such as Coca Cola, Gillette (now Procter and Gamble), American Express and Washington Post, are businesses which have a significant hold over their market. This is because they have inherent competitive advantages, whether it be a highly recognizable brand, or near-monopoly status in a geographic area. Such companies can typically raise their prices without fear that customers will walk away. This in turn produces fantastic earnings growth and, consequently, great investment performance. So, before you make an investment in future, try to understand whether the company you are investing in has a strong and defensible market position and whether it can raise prices if it needs to.

Hold for the Long Term

"We are willing to hold a stock indefinitely so long as we expect the business to increase in intrinsic value at a satisfactory rate . . . we do not sell our holdings just because they have appreciated or because we have held them for a long time." � Warren Buffett

Buffett's companies have generated enormous returns for him. For example, his investment of $10 million in 1973 in the Washington Post Company had grown to more than $1 billion by 2003. While a lot of us may be able to do this occasionally, Buffett has generated such returns with startling regularity. One of the reasons he is able to do so is because he holds for the long term and is not quick to enter or exit businesses. In fact, he stuck with WPC for two years even though its price fell below his purchase price because he understood the fundamentals of the business and believed that it was undervalued. Even once it became profitable, he was not quick to exit because he believed that it had greater potential. He held it through several bull and bear markets and no greater proof is needed than the return he achieved to show that he was right in holding it for so long.

Ignore Short-Term Fluctuations in Price

"Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results�not by their daily, or even yearly, price quotations�whether our investments are successful. The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it." � Warren Buffett

The stock market has a tendency to overreact on both the upside and downside. Often the market ignores the fundamentals of a business and reacts sharply to news flow. Sometimes entire sectors become either unduly depressed or overpriced. One of the key pillars of Buffett's approach is to ignore short-term fluctuations in price. He does not sell a stock because the market suddenly decides to drop. Neither does he buy one because it is going up. Once Buffett has calmly evaluated the fundamentals, he will buy the stock if its price is right. If the stock dips after he has purchased it, he does not worry so long as its fundamentals are good. Had he gotten jittery due to short-term price fluctuations, he would have been a lot less richer than he his currently.

Buy Good Businesses When Prices are Down

"If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they feel elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices." � Warren Buffett

On 19 October 1987, all global stock markets crashed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average actually suffered a decline of 22 per cent, the greatest single-day drop in its history. Every stock on the market fell. Most people sold their holdings in panic that day. Buffett, however, was buying! He made the single largest stock purchase of his life that day. While all others around him hit the panic button, Buffet bought 10 per cent of Coca Cola for $1 billion. Not only was it his largest single stock purchase, he also became the single largest shareholder in the company. In his analysis, Coca Cola had a great business, great long-term prospects and the ability to expand because of globalisation. If the market was willing to sell it at an unreasonably cheap price, he wanted to scoop it up with both hands. And scoop it up he did! Coca Cola became one of the most successful investments in Berkshire's portfolio. By 2006, Buffett had made over $11 billion on Coke since he bought it.

Don't Be an Active Trader

"Indeed, we believe that according the name 'investors' to institutions that trade actively is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic." � Warren Buffett

Buffett is an atypical investor not only because he is highly successful, but also because he does not even look at stock tickers. He believes that trading too much is a tax-inefficient and costly approach to investing. Consequently, he has a very low turnover portfolio, very low brokerage charges and has not paid very much in the nature of capital gains taxes.

Do Not Over-Diversify

"If you are a know-something investor, able to understand business economics and to find five to ten sensibly priced companies that possess important long-term competitive advantage, conventional diversification makes no sense for you." -- Warren Buffett

A striking aspect of Buffett's portfolio at Berkshire is the small number of stocks in it. This number has rarely exceeded 10 stocks. Buffett believes that there are very few outstanding investment opportunities at any given point of time and that one should invest enough in each of those to make a substantial difference. In contrast, most people fill up their portfolios with more than fifty stocks. As a result, even if a stock appreciates 100 per cent, the impact on their net worth will only be 2 per cent. Investors who want to generate truly outstanding returns should identify a small number of great businesses at the right prices and invest a significant amount of their money in each of them.

Invest Only When There is a Margin of Safety

"Margin of safety" is a slightly difficult concept to understand. It can be loosely defined as the difference between value and price. If the value of what you buy is higher than the price you pay for it, you have a high margin of safety. If the price you pay is greater than value, you have a low margin of safety. When the margin of safety is high, the investor need not worry about short-term fluctuations in price and can buy more if he or she has the resources to do so. Also, if you are investing in a situation with a significant margin of safety, you are likely to make a higher return because you are buying at a relatively low price.

However, how does one quantify this margin of safety? It is admittedly a grey area. There are seemingly scientific approaches, such as the discounted cash flow, which are taught in most corporate finance textbooks. In practice, though, it is both very subjective and very difficult for an individual investor to apply. However, there are other short cuts which are more approachable. Since the discounted cash flow ultimately crystallizes into the price / earnings (P/E) ratio, one way of estimating the margin of safety is to look at the P/E ratio. A low P/E means there is a margin of safety. But even this approach has its pitfalls. Slow growing, lousy companies often tend to have low P/E ratios. And, sometimes, very promising companies have high P/E multiples.

One way around this problem is to divide the P/E ratio by the growth rate of the company's profits to arrive at its price-earnings to growth ratio. Thus, if a company's P/E is 20 and the growth rate of its profits is 20 per cent, its PEG is 1. Oftentimes, a PEG of less than 1 implies that there is a significant margin of safety. A PEG of greater than one means that the margin of safety is not very high.

That said, PEG is not the holy grail of valuation and there are several ways to value a company -- and all these approaches have their flaws. You can consider your time well invested if you spend some time researching valuation by reading a corporate finance textbook.

Thus, Warren Buffet's investment approach is easy to understand, but calls for significant effort on your part to understand businesses, evaluate them and invest successfully but then, nobody said that becoming a billionaire was easy!

Mumbai police may interrogate Hrithik, Salman

Hrithik Roshan [Images] and Salman Khan [Images] may be heading for trouble with the Mumbai Police likely to call them for interrogation in the Iqbal Attarwala case.

Attarwala, a front man of underworld don Chotta Shakeel, was deported to India on September 6.

He had organised a cricket match -- Bollywood versus the Pakistan cricket team -- in Dubai. Hrithik and Salman were part of the Bollywood team, which also included actors Suneil Shetty and Sohail Khan [Images].

Interacting with media persons, Mumbai Joint Commissioner of Police Rakesh Maria said: "We want to verify the purpose of their visit and want to question them about this event."

Earlier, the crime branch had called up Salman's brother and actor-producer Sohail for his participation in the match last week. He was questioned for two hours and then let go.

"We want to verify whether or not Bollywood personalities did their paper work with regard to their contract papers for the match," added Maria.

At present, Attarwala has been charged in a land-grabbing case in the suburban area of Malad in Mumbai.

Chotta Shakeel's brother-in-law Arif Bhaijan was arrested by the Mumbai police in the same case two days ago.

Kumaraswamy won't resign today, crisis deepens

Irked over the deadline set by its coalition partner Bharatiya Janata Party, the Janata Dal-Secular on Tuesday firmly ruled out the resignation of Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy by this 'evening,' deepening the political crisis in Karnataka.

Dealing another blow to the saffron party, the JDS also sought to distance itself from the power-sharing agreement reached 20 months ago between the two parties.

Under the power sharing pact, Kumaraswamy is supposed to demit office on October 3, making way for BJP's B S Yediyurappa to take over chief ministership.

"The agreement was between me and some BJP leaders. There was no understanding between the two parties," Kumaraswamy told media persons, as the JDS continued to drag its feet on the issue.

"These kinds of decisions are taken with patience. We do not want to take the decision in haste," he said.

JDS supremo H D Deve Gowda said the party's political affairs committee meeting in New Delhi on October five will take the final decision on power transfer, and it would be binding on all.

The BJP, meanwhile, stuck to its deadline that Kumaraswamy should tender his resignation to Governor on Tuesday and hand over a letter of support.

"October three is the deadline for power transfer. We will not go back on that," the party's state unit president D V Sadananda Gowda said.

Kumaraswamy and state JDS unit president Mirajuddin Patel also sought to draw a parallel in the power-sharing deal between the People's Democratic Party and Congress, and pointed out that the Congress waited for three months for the former to transfer power to it.

Patel said Kumaraswamy would not resign on Tuesday, adding that the JDS has nothing to do with the power-sharing agreement inked two months ago, as the deal was only between Kumaraswamy and the BJP.

The BJP convened a meeting of its legislature party later in the day to discuss the emerging political situation and take a final view on the future course of action.

In another development, the Congress has also called its Legislature party meeting to discuss the political situation in the state.

Kumaraswamy will be meeting JDS legislators to elicit their views on power transfer to BJP, to which a majority of his partymen are opposed to.